The NFL remains a major betting market throughout the entire year, but things really heat up once the regular season begins. Each game of the NFL season is going to come with a number of different odds, and those odds can always change in the days leading up to the game.
When looking at NFL betting odds, the NFL stats are going to have a pretty big impact on the odds for each game. Not only do sports bettors look at these odds to make decisions, but sportsbooks also need to know what the stats are when setting the odds.
Sometimes the odds are going to move because of a very clear reason while other times it might appear to be more random. Here are four of the top reasons that NFL odds move, and how those factors could impact what the odds mean.
The biggest reason that NFL odds change is because of an injury to a significant player. The NFL is a violent game, and an injury to a key player can really dictate how that game is going to be played.
One huge advantage you have when betting on the NFL is that there is a strict policy for reporting on injuries. You are going to have a pretty clear view of what players will be available each week, and that will allow you to determine what the odds changes mean for you.
Heavy Betting Action
In case you weren’t aware, the sportsbooks want the betting action to be right around 50 percent for each side of a wager. The easiest way for sportsbooks to get the proper betting percentage that they want, they are going to move odds to create some action on each side of the bet.
Sportsbooks always keep a very close eye on the public consensus picks, and they will then adjust the odds by a point or two to attract more action on the other side. If you haven’t seen any breaking news for a particular game with moving lines then you can assume that there has been significant betting action taking place.
Change in the Weather
For games that are played indoors, the weather is not going to have any real impact on the NFL odds or the action on the field. Most NFL games are still played outdoors though, and the weather is going to dictate how a certain game is played.
Predicting the weather is extremely important to oddsmakers, and they are always keeping an eye on the seven-day forecast. The other real problem with weather is that it can change quickly, and that will force the sportsbooks to make a change as well.
If you are noticing a pretty significant change in the over/under betting odds then you can probably assume that there have been significant changes in the weather forecast for that game.
We already touched on the fact that injuries are going to have a massive impact on the NFL odds, but players and coaches might miss games for other reasons as well. In both 2020 and 2021, COVID-19 had a major impact on the games, and that would cause the odds to change for NFL matchups.
Suspensions are another reason that the NFL betting odds might change for a specific game, especially if that suspension was announced after the odds were already out. Anytime that a key player is missing a game for any reason, it’s going to have an impact on the betting odds.
If you are able to find out that a player will be missing before the sportsbook then you could potentially take advantage of some very valuable odds before they change.